Acrylonitrile & Derivatives World Supply/Demand Report is produced annually and is a very cost effective piece of intelligence giving a full historic database for the industry and offering an independent view of how the future looks.

The Acrylonitrile and Derivatives World Supply/Demand Report 2009 is now available...

The report was due to be issued in December 2009 but we thought it best to delay publishing to get a better view of the Q4 2009 situation and therefore hopefully to get a better handle on the forecast numbers. Many in the industry expected that Q4 2009 would see a dramatic tail off in activity but this did not happen. On this basis we believe that the correct decision was made to delay issuing the report. We believe that the report is a better and more useful document on this basis.

Companies involved in the industry who have not subscribed to the supply/demand report in the past or who have not yet ordered the 2009 edition are strongly encouraged to take a subscription. The report is a cost effective piece of intelligence giving a full historic data base for the industry and offering an independent view of the future direction. It is important that companies involved in the industry understand the dynamics of the business in order to make better decisions.

The report is a useful planning tool for acrylonitrile producers, consumers and traders. The development of acrylonitrile capacity is one side of the equation. Acrylonitrile demand from its various derivatives is the other and the demand prospects for each derivative is analysed (including capacity development). The demand side and the supply side are put together in order to understand how the market balance is likely to develop in the coming years.

Following stable acrylonitrile demand during 2004/2005/2006, acrylonitrile demand increased 1.2% in 2007 to reach the highest total ever. Following a promising start to 2008, the dramatic global economic problems that were seen in the second half of the year along with the collapse in the oil price, caused demand to slump towards the end of the year. The acrylonitrile market in 2008 totalled 4.531 million tons, a decrease of 719,000 tons or 13.7%.

Our forecast for 2009 is that acrylonitrile demand will increase by 5.5%, (+248,000 tons) to 4.779 million tons. Acrylonitrile demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 4.9%, (+234,000 tons). This is based on the continual recovery in the world economy coupled with a rebuild of pipeline stocks which we believe were very low at the end of 2009. We see demand growth from all derivatives with the strongest volume growth from the ABS/SAN sector.

Acrylonitrile demand growth is forecast at 3.7% per year on average for the period 2008-2018. This growth rate is perhaps a little misleading however as it starts from a very low base. Total acrylonitrile demand in 2018 is forecast at 6.516 million tons.

The acrylonitrile supply/demand balance is forecast to improve over the coming years as capacity is added slightly behind forecast demand growth. The timing of capacity additions will be critical for the market however, as any significant delay could cause a tightness to develop as was seen in 2007.

Acrylic fibre has lost market share (mainly to polyester), due to its relative high price. This has been evident since 2004. In 2008, acrylic fibre lost a substantial volume - 520,000 tons. In 2009, however it regained volume, seeing growth of 127,000 tons. How is it likely to look in the coming years?

Following a sustained period of demand growth, ABS/SAN demand fell by 13% in 2008 (960,000 tons) to 6.338 million tons. This followed growth of 6% in 2007 (413,000 tons). The dramatic global economic problems that were seen in 2008 were the background to the decline. Initially 2008 looked strong but the rapid negative changes that were seen in the global economic environment hit hard in Q3 and Q4 and a massive de-stocking took place. ABS/SAN demand in 2009 saw a recovery. Our forecast suggests that the market grew by 7.3% to reach 6.803 million tons (+465,000 tons). This is however, still behind the market size in 2007. What next?

Acrylamide looks to be moving into a period of strong growth with significant new capacity being added to feed the demand. Carbon fibre demand has stalled but is expected to recover strongly. NB Copolymers continue to show solid growth.

We have taken a close look at future demand for the major derivatives along with the other smaller volume acrylonitrile derivatives. PCI Acrylonitrile Ltd believes that its analysis of this industry is the best available. The report has been researched and prepared by Simon Garmston (with 22 years consulting experience to this industry).

The 2009 report totals 292 pages. Historic data years run 2003-2008, while forecasts run 2009-2018. The report includes capacity information by company for acrylonitrile, acrylic fibre, ABS/SAN, adiponitrile, NB copolymers and acrylamide. Each country in the world that is involved in the production or consumption of acrylonitrile is analysed with data on capacity, production, consumption by derivative, imports and exports shown for historic years and forecast to 2018. The country detail is consolidated into regional and world level data. There are sections on demand for acrylic fibre, demand for ABS/SAN and acrylonitrile trade. There is a section that shows plant location maps. In addition to the hard copy, a CD is included containing all data back to 1986.